Tuesday's Tips
By Kevin Rogers
As July winds down, the Wild Card races continue to heat up. A full card of night baseball dominates the sports landscape on Tuesday, including a handful of interdivision matchups. The showdown that takes center stage features a pair of reigning NL division champions in the City of Brotherly Love.
Cubs at Phillies (7:05 PM EST)
Two of the hottest teams in baseball hook up in Philadelphia, as the Cubs and Phillies continue their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Lou Piniella's team is slowly returning from the dead, winning six of eight games, despite Monday's 10-1 loss. It does help that the Cubs are getting healthier, as third baseman Aramis Ramirez has been back in the lineup since July 6. Ramirez's numbers aren't great since his return (.229 BA, 1 HR), but the timing is good for him to get back in the swing of things at this point of the season.
The Phillies were disappointing at home for the majority of the first half, but captured nine of ten at Citizens Bank prior to the All-Star Break, including a handful of walk-off wins. Philadelphia solidified their hold on the NL East lead with a three-game sweep at Florida over the weekend. The Phillies have hit the 'under' in nine of their last 15 games, including ten games in which Philadelphia held its opponent to two or less runs.
Since the end of May, Joe Blanton has delivered seven of nine quality starts, while winning his last two outings. The Phillies righty has allowed 19 home runs this season, with 12 of those long balls coming at home (the Cubs knocked out six homers in their four-game sweep of Washington over the weekend). In nine home starts, Blanton has drilled the 'under' six times, while hitting the 'under' in his last three overall.
Blanton's former teammate in Oakland, Rich Harden, takes the mound for the Cubbies tonight. Harden has struggled to find consistency this season, going 6-6, with an ERA of 5.06. Amazingly, the Chicago flamethrower has peaked on the road, owning a 4-1 mark away from the Friendly Confines. Harden's last two road victories have had impressive lines (13 IP, 1 ER), but the righty beat a pair of last-place teams, the Pirates and Nationals.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Phillies as a $1.25 home favorite, with the total set at 9.
Giants at Braves (7:05 PM EST)
A solid pitching matchup takes place at Turner Field, as veteran Derek Lowe opposes rookie Ryan Sadowski. Atlanta is right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, sitting 3 ½ games behind San Francisco after the Braves blew out the Giants, 11-3 on Monday night.
Lowe has endured plenty of ups and downs in his first season with the Braves, as Atlanta won seven of his first ten starts. The Braves then lost six of his next eight trips to the mound, but Lowe has won his last two starts against the Rockies and Mets. After a nice string of 'overs' to begin the season, the 'under' has hit in nine of Lowe's last 11 starts.
Sadowski began his career with a bang, by not allowing a run in first two starts, victories over the Brewers and Astros. The Giants righty fell back to Earth when he got touched up for five hits and three runs in five innings of work in a loss to the Marlins prior to the All-Star Break. The Braves have had problems with right-handed pitching this season, hitting .257, while scoring 253 runs, which ranks 28th in the league.
LVSC has opened the Braves as a hefty $1.85 favorite, with the total listed at 8 ½.
Rays at White Sox (8:10 PM EST)
Last season's rematch of the ALDS takes place at U.S. Cellular Field, as the Sox and Rays meet up for the second game of their four-game series. This is a crucial stretch for Ozzie Guillen's club, who battles five straight teams right in the middle of the playoff race over the next 19 days (Rays, Twins, Tigers, Yankees, Angels).
The Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 home games, sending southpaw Clayton Richard to the mound. Richard may not exactly be the answer to slow down the Rays, as the lefty has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four outings. To make things worse, Richard lasted a grand total of 15 innings in those four trips. Two of Richard's best starts have come against two of the worst offenses in baseball, the Pirates and Royals, back in late May. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks second in baseball in runs scored (492), and fourth in batting average (.292).
Jeff Niemann has been impressive in his first full season inside the Rays rotation, going 8-4, with an ERA of 3.73. Tampa Bay has won eight of Niemann's ten road starts, with the Rays outscoring their opponents by over three runs a game in those contests. Niemann owns some of the best run support in the game, as the Rays average a shade over seven runs a game in his 16 starts. Tampa Bay is just 7-13 this season in night games on the road against left-handed starters, while hitting the 'over' in nine of the last 11 in this spot.
The Rays are listed as a $1.30 road favorite according to LVSC, while the total is set at 9.5.
What else to watch for:
-- Red Sox ace Josh Beckett looks for his AL-leading 12th victory when Boston battles Texas. The Lone Star State native has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last ten starts.
-- Aaron Cook tries to become the second Rockies pitcher to 10 wins this season as Colorado hosts Arizona. The only problem is Cook's recent history with the Diamondbacks, as Colorado is 2-8 his last ten starts against Arizona dating back to 2006. Cook has also had bad luck with his division counterparts this season, as the Rockies are 2-6 in his eight starts versus the NL West.
-- The Yankees hope they have found another starting pitcher for the stretch run, as Sergio Mitre makes his Bronx Bomber debut against the Orioles. The former Cubs and Marlins right-hander went 3-1 with an ERA of 2.40 in seven starts at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre.